dare to rant

Yep, I’m back. Deal with it.

There’s been a lot of chatter recently about the stock price of Apple. This past November, it crashed to a six-month low, and continues a steady decline. In case you haven’t been watching, here’s a visual summary of its losses against the forces of gravity:

To be clear: I do not invest in stocks at all, and have not incurred financial losses over Apple’s stock. However, I always thought that if I was going to invest in anything, it would be in Apple. The truth is, the foundations and operational successes of the company, by all critical measures, should result in an incredibly healthy stock price. Unfortunately, stock prices are determined more by speculators and those within the trading world that would benefit directly from the prices hitting certain points. Thus, they are controlled by forces we cannot truly understand as outsiders.

Still, it’s not the price that bothers me most, it’s all the people who have deluded themselves into thinking they actually understand the stock price behavior. Here are just some of the inane brain farts I have encountered:

“Steve Jobs’ death killed Apple.”

False. Since Jobs’ passing, Apple’s shares have soared more than 80% percent.

“Tim Cook cannot innovate.”

False. While he may not have Jobs’ stage presence, Cook has innovated his way to quite possibly the most efficient distribution network possible for his products. As noted in Information Week, he is considered a master of logistics, and is credited with “re-engineering Apple’s supply chain to increase profit margins while allowing for more flexibility to produce new products and make changes on the fly”. This is new territory that Jobs was never able to conquer.

“Apple is too expensive, so they don’t make much money in sales.”

False. Unless the next thing you say is “I have noticed that I tend to speak nonsense, so I will cease speaking”, please stop talking. This is a critical point, so pay attention. Apple is not just a profitable company; it is the most profitable company in the United States.

In their most recent quarterly report, Apple posted a record-breaking fifty four and a half billion dollars in profits. They generated more revenue in one quarter than Google did in all of 2012. Coincidentally, that is about fifty four and a half billion dollars more profit than Amazon makes (hint: they kind of don’t make money).

Think about that.

Then be silent and humbled, and think about it again.

Then go do some humble yoga, eat some humble pie, and practice your impression of an inanimate object.

Okay, you may now continue reading.

Apple’s net profit margins (i.e. cash they get to keep) are the stuff of dreams for most CEOs, and it puts them in a completely different league as their competitors. The next two most profitable companies are oil companies, which, as we all know, have a contract with the devil to trick humans into buying his urine to power their go karts until the end of days. So, they clearly have an unfair advantage.

Despite the numbers, Apple’s stock tanked by a whopping 10% after they reported those record earnings. Why? Well, it turns out that Apple calculates that particular quarter as a 13-week instead of 14-week quarter, so the numbers were (logically) lower than other quarters. Somehow, this freaked people out, and consumer confidence fell again. The absurd thing is that Apple always informs the public regarding the 13-week impact ahead of time, but it still gets drowned out by the loud screams of ignorance and panic.

Apparently, even Captain Obvious is no match for the likes of The Human Idiot.

Somehow, Apple’s stock continues to dwindle despite record profits, sales and revenues. Overall, stock prices seem to reflect an increasingly contorted picture of the health of a company. Even expert traders for the most part find that their best results will match average performance of the market, assuming they are patient enough to wait for for them over the long term.

So, the next time you’re thinking about investing in stocks for short-term returns, just try your money on the slot machines instead. They are both impossible to predict, yet delude you into thinking you’re mildly in control. Think doing your stock homework will change the outcome of your investment? It might — the same way that pulling the slot machine lever while holding your lucky Honey Boo Boo keychain might just get you a jackpot.

Good luck with that.

P.S. Why in God’s name do you have a Honey Boo Boo keychain, anyway? What is wrong with you?

A few folks have queried me regarding my lack of posts over the last year. I attributed it primarily to my own relative happiness, implying that I tend to only compile the agglomerations of rage commonly known as my ‘rants’ when I am angry.

Well, I’m angry now.

Of late, I have had to book a lot of flights. Thinking back, the word ‘flying’ once exuded overwhelmingly positive connotations; freedom, the open skies, and being one with the mythical Gods themselves. Over time, as the novelty of human flight wore off on society, the commercial component of the experience dictated its identity entirely. Today, with excruciatingly few exceptions, flying is quite possibly the worst way to get anywhere. From paying exorbitant flight fees, to paying to check your bag, to wading through cancer-inducing security lines, to seats with legroom appropriate for a pelican. Flying just plain sucks; so much so that it drives some people toward mental breakdowns, at which point they literally jump out of planes to escape the horror of it all.

On the surface, booking a flight online seems like an ideal experience: simply go online, click a few things, and voila, you’re done! Unfortunately, as it turns out, it’s actually one of the most rage-inducing processes known to man.

At present, I have a few flights I’m trying to book over the next few months. One of these flights has literally doubled its fares in a matter of a week, for no apparent reason. On its own, this issue would not bother me — this would be manifested in a common marketplace as one store having inflated prices. The typical reaction from me, the consumer, would be to simply never go to said store anymore, and purchase my product elsewhere. The store would then realize that their customers may, in fact, think on occasion, and then reduce their prices to meet the market levels. This is a natural balancing act present in most fair marketplaces.

Of course, online flights do not follow the same economy; rather, they more accurately reflect a monopolistic environment. The minute one web site’s flight prices skyrocket, every other flight search website in existence also has its prices skyrocket, at the exact same time, with the exact same prices. This is not a coincidence, and everyone knows it. The immediacy of the change negates the natural balances normally at play, and heavily abuses the flight search sites’ collective ability to control supply. There is no justification for the service of flying an individual from one location to another change its value by 100% within 24 hours. The sad part is that no one even claims such axioms to be true; instead, the sites silently practice this openly without any ramifications. It’s robbery in broad daylight, folks.

The truth is, even the savvy consumer cannot defeat this system. The erratic nature of the pricing means that no system can predict it, so the typical consumer barely comprehends the extend of abuse that is happening. On most occasions, buying flights earlier is cheaper, but sometimes waiting a few days drops the price by hundreds of dollars. Why? No one knows, except the vendors, of course.

There is no perceptible logic behind the prices; they embody a proverbial entropy of possible values. Furthermore, because the technology that facilitates this is still relatively new, there are no regulations to prevent companies from openly abusing the system to take advantage of consumers. To supplement my case, I interviewed a hypothetical traveler in my head, and transcribed the result below. Obviously, everything below can be interpreted as 100% factual information.

ME:	So, how much did the last flight you booked cost you?
TRAVELER:	Umm, something like $500.
ME:	I see. Is that a lot of money for that flight?
TRAVELER:	Well, all the web sites I checked had it at that price. So, I did my research. Usually when I’m buying something I go to all the stores and check to find the lowest price; that way I know I got the best deal. So, it must have been the best price.
ME:	Have you flown this flight before?
TRAVELER:	Yes, a few times.
ME:	How much did it cost in the past?
TRAVELER:	One time it was around $350, another time I paid around $400.
ME:	Why do you think the prices changed so much?
TRAVELER:	I don’t know… maybe gas prices went up?
ME:	FALSE.
ME:	I just searched the flight you went on — it’s $300. Did gas prices just halve since you flew?
TRAVELER:	…
ME::	Even if they did, that would mean flight prices were based on gas, so the longer the flight, the more expensive it would be. Right?
TRAVELER:	…yes, that would make sense…
ME:	FALSE.
ME:	There are hundreds of flights that go twice as far as your flight for half the price.
TRAVELER:	You are making me sad now.
ME:	You just buy flights without having any idea what their actual value is worth, so you just pay whatever price you see.
ME:	Y U SHOP LIKE SHEEP?
TRAVELER:	I… I… don’t have a choice…
ME:	…Exactly.

I hope someday a savvy entrepreneur or developer sees the opening here and builds a service that optimizes flight searches for you. Bing has tried to do this, but I find their forecasting system to be occasionally reliable at best. I want to be be able to put in some dates for my flight, and expect that I will pay the standard amount for that flight. End of story. Is that really so much to ask?

For all of you flight buyers out there who blame yourself for “missing the price drop”, stop beating yourself up. Instead, target your rage towards the flight search companies.

My suggestion: procure a harpoon and deploy a variety of arrows to their collective faces, and then charge them an inconvenience fee for making you waste time buying a harpoon.